To borrow one of Donald Trump’s favorite phrases, his second impeachment trial will be one “the likes of which we’ve never seen.” If he were to make this statement himself, it would be one of his few true ones. He will be the first president to have been tried twice in the Senate on impeachment charges, and it appears he is on track to be acquitted twice as well.
The single article of Trump’s second impeachment is for “incitement of insurrection” and is supported by a vast array of publicly available evidence. If this were a criminal trial with a jury of peers instead of a political trial with the Senate as Jury, it would be hard to imagine anything but a conviction. But, given the Senate’s requirement of a 66% vote and the presence of a large Trump contingent, it seems that a conviction is anything but likely. Ironically, some senators who will vote for acquittal were also personally endangered during the Capitol attack. Even so, they apparently do not see Trump’s attempt to remain in power via incitement of violence as an impeachable offense. As many have recently pointed out, if this is not such an offense, then what is?
The attack itself appears to have been motivated by two related things: Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him, and unconditional loyalty to Trump himself. The combination of these two things has proven to be insanely powerful. Whether or not Republican supporters of the former president subscribe to conspiracy theories like QAnon or believe that Trump was placed in power by God, most seem to have traded adherence to values for adherence to the man himself. This is classic cult behavior and has no place in a functional republic like the United States. It is much more in line with a nationalistic, authoritarian system or even a pure dictatorship.
Some will offer a more traditional (if disingenuous) explanation for the behavior of our Republican elected officials. Some will say that members of the House and Senate are simply trying to be faithful representatives of their constituents, that they must vote according to the will of their people regardless of their own personal leanings. But, as some analysts have recently pointed out, we elect our politicians not simply to represent us but also to employ a certain amount of wisdom in doing so.
The “faithful representative” argument clearly has merit, but it also hides blind ambition and fear. While it is true that working to stay in office is a great motivator and is part of a healthy political system, it corrupts the system when it becomes the singular focus. This is especially true when politicians knowingly promote self-serving lies, influencing their constituents from positions of high visibility and power. Once influenced, constituents loudly echo these lies and their faithful representatives then happily vote accordingly, thus completing an insidious loop of disinformation. Trump and his supporters in Congress have become masters of this non-virtuous cycle.
So we will likely see another Trump acquittal in the next one to two weeks. All Democrats and a small handful of principled Republicans will probably vote for Trump’s conviction but, unfortunately, there will be enough Republicans who, despite overwhelming evidence, will vote for acquittal. They will stand up for their cult leader, either because they themselves are under his sway or because they are afraid of losing his base of voters. I’m not sure which is worse.