I’ve been asking this question about Donald Trump since he first ran for President in 2016 and there have been endless opportunities to wonder ever since. The man says and does things that would disqualify, embarrass, and even convict almost any other person on the planet. Things like bragging about sexual assault, promising that Mexico would pay for a border wall, extorting the President of Ukraine for personal and political gain, suggesting the ingestion of bleach as a Covid cure, or settling court cases concerning his fraudulent “university” and his “charitable organization.” Oh, yes, and that little matter of the insurrection.
Instead of continuing the long historical list, let’s just jump ahead in time. Yesterday on Trump’s ironically named “Truth Social,” he referenced his infamous 2018 meeting with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki to rhetorically ask readers again whether they should trust our own “intelligence lowlifes” or the President of Russia. And then, in what looked for all the world like another self-inflicted wound, he bragged about having more lawyers than “the late great gangster, Alphonse Capone.” But, like all his past statements and actions, these will do little to diminish the adoration flowing from his hard-core base.
Apparently, he understood this from the very beginning when he said, “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.” But he does lose a few each time he takes a shot. Whether consciously or not, I suspect Trump is engaging in a kind of refinement process in which he continually tests his base for loyalty, tolerates the loss of a few people from the periphery, and distills the base down to a purer and purer core of disciples. “How much do you love Trump?” his narcissism seems to ask again and again. If he knew anything at all about the book he claims as his favorite, I wouldn’t be shocked if Trump eventually engaged in a bit of biblical appropriation: “Thou shalt have no other gods before me.”
Because of this testing and refinement process, Trump’s base slowly shrinks over time. But the remnant grows stronger, more virulent, and more willing to follow him into any fight. If he is eventually indicted for one of his many crimes and then convicted, he will become a martyr. At that point, the perceptions of the base and Trump’s own self-image will merge almost perfectly. “I am a victim of a massive and cruel witch hunt,” he will say. But the most powerful implication—and one he increasingly tries to make explicit—is “You are victims too. It’s time to rise up and take back our country. Follow me.”
He had a successful practice run on January 6, 2021, and he can call up the troops again, whether he wins the 2024 Republican nomination or not. But the race that will actually determine the outcome will be the one between the decreasing size of the base and its increasing virulence. Will Trump’s continual testing of the base eventually reduce its size to the point of irrelevance, or will his testing prove to be more like a uranium-enriching centrifuge yielding a small but highly potent core?
My guess, for what it’s worth, is that Trump’s personal base will shrink to the point where he becomes irrelevant but the MAGA movement itself will try to maintain relevance by finding another leader, one without as much personal and legal baggage. But the most radical elements of the MAGA movement seem to behave as a cult, and any cult needs a charismatic leader who projects strength, demands loyalty, and preaches us-against-evil. Trump filled the bill nicely and it’s unclear who else can. Even if someone with similar traits can be found, Republican infighting and visible incompetence in Congress will probably prevent another such leader from gaining much traction. Ron DeSantis or someone similar will undoubtedly try, but it seems unlikely than anyone will achieve the cult status of Donald J. Trump in the foreseeable future.
Of course it would be incredibly naïve to think that dissolution of the Trump cult could erase the underlying currents of Christian nationalism, racism, economic disparities, and fears of displacement which fuel the right wing today. Unfortunately, those will persist. But with the lack of a cult leader, more equitable economic policy, better educational opportunities for all (including honest recognition of our darkest historical moments), higher-paying green energy jobs, police and prison reform, and the fair rule of law, it might be possible to minimize these currents. Just possible, nowhere near certain. But we can’t give up. The cost is simply too high.